Excess mortality

Excess mortality

On December 1, 1981, more than 200 people died in one day

Most people die in the winter, the least in the summer. In October 2020, for the first time, excess mortality differed markedly from the average of the previous five years, with 24% more people dying than usual.
The Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SORS) has started publishing a new indicator on excess mortality, which measures the differences between mortality under normal conditions and mortality in emergency conditions, as they are now due to the covida-19 pandemic. The monthly excess mortality in 2020 is expressed as a percentage compared to the average of the same months in the period 2015-2019. We will update the data on a monthly basis. It is also available in the SiStat database.

Most people die in January

In the last 20 years in Slovenia, the month in which the largest number of inhabitants died (2.425) was January 2017, when Slovenia reached the peak of the seasonal flu, which was spread throughout Europe in the winter season 2016/2017. January 29, 2017, was also the only day until the epidemic of covida-19 when the number of deaths in one day exceeded one hundred (101). If we look a little further back, the most tragic day in the recent history of Slovenia was December 1, 1981, when more than 200 people died in one day, most of them in a plane crash in Corsica, which otherwise required 180 victims.

The month with the second highest number of deaths was also January, namely January 2019, when 2.140 people died. Two thousand or more people died in just two more months between 2000 and 2019 (in January 2000, when the numbers game showed that exactly 2.000 people died that month, and in March 2018) and - according to provisional data - in October 2020, when 2.073 people died. The new highest monthly number of deaths in Slovenia will be recorded in November 2020, as by November 22, according to provisional SORS data, 2.100 inhabitants had died. almost 100 a day.

On the other hand, the month in which Slovenia had the lowest number of deaths (1.330) was July 2000. Among the seven months with less than 1.400 deaths, only September 2015 was in the last decade. The day with the lowest number of deaths (25) was 16. May 2002
In general, mortality is considered to be highest in the winter months, with January standing out, and lowest from May to September. In the new millennium, an average of 53 people died every day, an average of 59 every day in January, and an average of 49 every day from May to September.

From 2014 onwards, the highest number of deaths among the population in the age group is 85-89 years

We note that the overall mortality rate over the last 20 years - with a simultaneous increase in life expectancy and the consequent aging of the population - was relatively stable until 2016 (an average of 9,3 people per 1000 population died), but in the last three years rose to 9,9. As the average age of deaths increased by 6 years during this period (from 72 to 78 years), the age periods in which most of the population died also shifted. In the period 2000–2003, the majority of the population died in the age group of 75–79 years (15%), in the following ten years the majority of the population died in the age group of 80–84 years (18%), and from 2014 onwards the 85-89 age group, and these deaths accounted for almost a fifth of all deaths during this period.

The number of people aged 85 or over has fluctuated from year to year, also due to the large differences in the numbers of individual generations resulting from the aftermath of the two world wars in the 20th century. The lowest number was in 2003 and 2004 (less than 20.000), and in July 2020 their number exceeded 55.000. Due to the increase in the number of elderly people, the number of deaths is increasing even at the same mortality rate. In Slovenia, mortality among the oldest population continued to decline until the outbreak of the second wave of the covida-19 epidemic. If the mortality rate of the population aged 85 or over in 2019 was the same as at the beginning of the new millennium (more than 180 deaths per 1.000 population), then instead of the 7.700 deaths there would have been 9.600 deaths.
In 2020, the mortality rate of the population aged 85 or over was at the level of mortality at the beginning of the millennium

In October 2020, when excess mortality for the first time differed markedly from the average of the previous five years (24% more deaths), mortality among the oldest population was again at the level of the beginning of the millennium and was in fact exactly the same as in the first two months of 2020. the outbreak of the covida-19 epidemic. Otherwise, the year 2020 also confirms the well-known fact that the least members of the oldest generations die in the summer months.

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